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<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD JATS (Z39.96) Journal Publishing DTD v1.3 20210610//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/publishing/1.3/JATS-journalpublishing1-3.dtd">
<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xml:lang="en">
  <front xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="elibrary">9004</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Problems of information security. Computer systems</journal-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Проблемы информационной безопасности. Компьютерные системы</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">2071-8217</issn>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">5</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.48612/jisp/xmg2-m34p-rmn3</article-id>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Application of large language models in event forecasting field</article-title>
        <trans-title-group xml:lang="ru">
          <trans-title>Применение больших языковых моделей в задаче прогнозирования событий</trans-title>
        </trans-title-group>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0000-0001-9862-1507</contrib-id>
          <name>
            <surname>Dakhnovich</surname>
            <given-names>Andrey</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
          <email>add@ibks.spbstu.ru</email>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0009-0000-3249-4103</contrib-id>
          <name>
            <surname>Bogina</surname>
            <given-names>Vasilisa</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
          <email>bogina_vm@spbstu.ru</email>
        </contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">0009-0008-9034-1365</contrib-id>
          <name>
            <surname>Makeeva</surname>
            <given-names>Anna</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"/>
          <email>makeeva.aa@edu.spbstu.ru</email>
        </contrib>
      </contrib-group>
      <aff id="aff1">Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University</aff>
      <pub-date publication-format="electronic" date-type="pub" iso-8601-date="2025-08-25">
        <day>25</day>
        <month>08</month>
        <year>2025</year>
      </pub-date>
      <issue>Спецвыпуск</issue>
      <fpage>58</fpage>
      <lpage>68</lpage>
      <self-uri xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" content-type="pdf" xlink:href="https://jisp.spbstu.ru/userfiles/files/soderzhaniya/2025_spetsvipusk-7-8.pdf"/>
      <abstract xml:lang="en">
        <p>This article presents a study on the use of large language models (LLMs) for event prediction through the application of LLM agents - autonomous systems that utilize LLMs for reasoning, decision-making, and interaction with the environment. Various architectures of LLM agents are analyzed, including cooperative systems (ChatDev, MetaGPT), multi-agent debates (MAD, ChatEval), agents for web-based tasks (WebAgent, WebVoyager), and simulation-based agents (Generative Agents, EconAgent). Special attention is given to the features of predictive modeling powered by LLMs, where traditional approaches (regression, time series) are replaced by agent-based modeling and prompt engineering. The article presents experimental results on forecasting the outcome of a selected conflict using LLM agents (Mistral, DeepSeek) and the Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) approach, based on data from analytical agencies, opinion leaders, and news sources. The study identifies a convergence of predictive assessments across polarized sources and outlines key requirements for forecasting systems: weighting sources by expert relevance, filtering out neutral data, and balancing the dataset. Additionally, the article formulates criteria for selecting data to be evaluated by simulation-based LLM agents.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group xml:lang="en">
        <kwd>Artificial intelligence</kwd>
        <kwd>generative models</kwd>
        <kwd>large language models</kwd>
        <kwd>agentbased modeling</kwd>
        <kwd>social simulations</kwd>
        <kwd>LLM-agents</kwd>
        <kwd>natural language processing</kwd>
        <kwd>RAG</kwd>
        <kwd>prompt-engeneering</kwd>
        <kwd>conflict forecasting</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
